Housing Bubble Possible In Canada
Experts have been warning about it for some time now, and it looks like they may have been right. Many were applauding how strong the housing market in places like Toronto and Vancouver was in 2009, with record growth in many areas, but it turns out that the growth may have come at a price. Many experts and economists are calling the current housing situation a perfect storm to create a housing bubble, which could cause the market to crash just as soon as it has risen up so quickly.
According to the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, for the first time in 30 years, housing prices have risen faster than historic comfort levels in most of the major cities in Canada, including Toronto, Edmonton, Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa and Calgary. This, according to experts, is a tell-tale sign that a housing bubble is coming and when it does, it could lead to a drop in price of as much as 40 percent in property values.
Housing bubbles are not common to Canada since Canada has different regulations and rules in place. Canada did not allow sub-prime lending to the degree seen in the United States, so Canada was spared the full brunt of the collapse as was seen south of the border. However, the report says that seeing a big rise in housing prices, so quickly, in so many cities, is a sign that there is an accident just waiting to happen.
Over the past year, housing prices have been at about $150,000 to $220,000 but they have suddenly jumped to over $300,000, which has many worried.
The biggest housing markets in Canada are not stable right now, especially after the increase in housing prices that was seen from 2002 to 2007.
In the past, housing prices tended to be about three to four times the provincial median income, but currently housing prices are as much as 11 times higher than the average median income. That is much more than most can afford, which leads to failed mortgage payments and individuals falling behind until they suffer foreclosure.
What cities are going to be hurt the most? According to the Centre for Policy Alternatives, Edmonton and Montreal will suffer the biggest hit in terms of percentage lost, losing 38 and 34 percent respectively. They are expected to lose this amount within three years.
Vancouver is going to suffer the worst fall in terms of dollars, losing $200,000 from the average home. That means homes worth $350,000 now could be worth $150,000 within only a couple years.
In the past, there have been three housing bubbles bursting. Two have happened in Vancouver, where the highest home prices are, and once in Toronto. This housing bubble burst could be the worst of all, with six different cities suffering a housing bubble.
For those who do not have a home and are looking to buy, it could be a buyer’s market very soon. For those who sell houses, the next few years are going to be tough ones indeed. For the economy of Canada, things may be getting worse before they get any better.
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