Good News – Growth Is Here!

It is slightly too early to say that the recession is in its final throes, and those of us who wish to avoid tempting fate would never dream of creating such a hostage to fortune, but the announcement by Finance minister Jim Flaherty on Thursday that stability and recovery have arrived must at least be a positive sign for those of us who had begun to wonder if the positive forecasts blowing around were part of some mirage. Of course, until we see two consecutive periods of stability and growth it will be hard to say for sure that the recession is receding. At the present time, however, it is good to hear the central bank issuing positive news on growth.

The projections by the Bank of Canada are that after three consecutive quarters of contraction in the national economy, this quarter will see growth of 1.3%. The figures may not be earth-shattering, but it is what they represent that means good news for the country. After a sustained period of contraction, any quarterly growth can be seen as a sign that things are warming up. With better growth, the opportunity for new jobs to be created will be higher, and Canadians left unemployed by the effects of the recession can begin to look ore hopefully for jobs.

This means a welcome vote of confidence for the reading which argued that due to Canada’s more reserved economic approach, the nation would be among the first to step out of the recession and do it in a stronger way. It does not, however, mean that the global recession is over or that a domino effect will see growth kick off in the United States, Europe or Japan. Indeed, some of the financial systems in the world’s other countries may cause more ripples in the global economy for a while yet – meaning that international trade may be stymied somewhat.

The central bank has been keen to point out that the recovery in Canada is, as yet, in its infancy and not something to be taken for granted. This may not yet be the time to take even a calculated financial risk. The financial recovery is at the moment still reliant on stimulus spending from the government – the equivalent of a sportsman whose knee injury has healed but still requires crutches.

The US, meanwhile, is believed by its bankers to be on its way to recovery, with the pace of decline slowing and growth predicted to begin by the end of the year. As Canada’s nearest neighbour this will undoubtedly affect the recovery here, so it is worth keeping an eye on the financial news from south of the border. Although the economy is still vulnerable it is looking in much better shape than a year ago. The global recovery may yet be painfully slow, but the good news is that it is at least set to happen, and that the contraction is beginning to die down. Given the doom and gloom in the immediate aftermath of the credit crunch in 2008, that we may be out of recession by the end of 2010 is positive news.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, July 26th, 2009 at 12:15 pm and is filed under Canada. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.