Consumer Confidence Is Important

For the seventh month in a row – almost unheard of in a global downturn – the consumer confidence felt by surveyed Canadians is on the increase. This was the finding of the latest monthly survey from the Conference Board of Canada, which found that, based on a fairly complicated index of statistics and consumer response, the confidence of Canadians with regard to potential future jobs and larger-scale purchases has rises by two and a half percentage points to break the 90% mark (at a total of 90.9%). Meanwhile, south of the border in the United States, the level of consumer confidence sits at 53.1%. This is due in no small part to the deeper nature of the recession in the States – an economy which is showing recovery, but later and slower than that in place in Canada.

Of course, although these statistics sound great for Canadians and less so for the American public, there is a reason that they are not trumpeted as broadly as harder financial figures. The clue is in the wording of the results and indeed the questions asked. “Confidence” and “sentiment” are hard things to measure exactly. The indices used are based on a lot of different data, and prone to be skewed by false confidence or misguided bullishness depending on the prevailing public opinion of the time. Another survey entirely, carries out by the University of Michigan in collaboration with Reuters, puts the US numbers up at 73.5, on a rise and therefore going in a completely different direction from those of the US Conference Board. Which is right? Possibly both, possibly neither, it depends on the questions asked among many other variables.

However, this is not to say that consumer confidence is unimportant. It most certainly is not, in fact there is a great deal to be said for having a consumer force out there who are confident of earning and ready to spend some money. This in itself helps drive recoveries, and if belief can be spread at such a crucial time it is not something that we should be cynical about. Of course, we’re talking about finance here, so there is going to be cynicism – indeed, if you could bottle a sneer and sell it, the entire global economy could be expanding by multiple percentage points tomorrow – but the knowledge that people are ready to start making purchases again is certainly something to be pleased about.

The pattern of skepticism in our world is something that makes it difficult to read anything into any package of figures released – and more so when the figures contradict each other so frequently. It would be interesting to fast forward into 2011 and see if people are still as dubious about the recovery and how it will hold then. Perhaps this tougher crust will at least enable us to see the warning signs ignored by so many when they were being waved frenetically a few years ago. If not, then this crisis has taught us nothing. What we seem to be seeing in the latest figures is encouraging in that respect – a guarded optimism that takes nothing for granted.

 

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