I will be participating at The December 2009 Toronto Small Press Book Fair. For more details, visit this link –

MEET CANADA’S PERSONAL FINANCE AUTHOR A. DAWN AT THE GLADSTONE HOTEL

Hope to see you all.

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Looking to the Future

Reading the financial pages of the newspapers – both national and international press – has become something of an endurance sport in the past 18 months. Although there have been serious issues in need of being addressed, there must also be some acknowledgement that at a certain point, bad financial news reaches a level of saturation that makes everyone reading want to bury their head in the sand and shout “no more!”. This presents financial editors with a tricky conundrum. You have to report what’s going on, but when all you seem to be reporting is one hammer blow after another, does a point arrive where the coverage begins to dictate behaviour?

There is now a great deal of cynicism when any politician says that they can see the green shoots of financial recovery. Of course, there tends to be some cynicism when any politician says anything these days. It has become de rigueur to simply disbelieve a politician by dint of their occupation. It would be tempting to assert, although one must accept that statistics do not exist to back this up, that were a prominent politician to stand up and declare that it was sunny outside, 25% of any audience would look out the window for definitive proof before trusting that it actually was. This is how politicians are viewed by the general public in almost every country. It may not be ideal, but that’s how things are.

So it becomes doubly hard for governments to persuade their electorate that financial recovery is on its way, or already here. When a populace will refuse to believe the word of a politician on principle, overcoming cynicism becomes a Herculean task. Is this how it should be? A little bit of skepticism is surely welcome, but at what stage does skepticism become deliberate contrariness? At what point do we say “the media are saying one thing, the government another – I can only trust my own judgement.”? It seems that in this case, there is no time like the present. To clarify that, we appear to be on the cusp of a recovery which may, initially, be accompanied by limited growth or none at all. Waiting for recovery with growth to take off could mean missing the best opportunities. Get on the right bus now, however, and there could be excellent payoffs when your stop comes along.

As much as we like to make our own judgements based on a commendable grasp of the information in front of us, it should be accepted that we live in a world without certainties. No-one ever got rich backing sure things, but the markets are beginning to rise. Investing at this point may be the wisest step, because once the recovery has clicked into top gear it could be too late. It may not work out the way you hoped it would, but the same is true of any investment at any time – unless you are illegally well-connected. Be cautious and suspicious by all means, but don’t let opportunity pass you by.

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The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively and irresponsibly

The credit-led financial crisis in which the world still languishes at present carries some quite profound lessons for us all, much though there will be people queuing up to say that they saw it all coming all along. The undeniable truth is that the world has been hit by this crisis in a way that has left few people untouched – and if it could happen at a time when we are supposed to know more about finance, and about everything, than we all knew a decade or two ago, then what is to stop it happening again? Well, this is what our government are looking at, and along with them the governments of several other countries. Will this put an end to future recessions? Not indefinitely, but we’ll see how long it holds them off.

There were numerous possible reactions when this whole house of cards came crashing down. One was schadenfreude, and it was much in evidence from people who had held on to their jobs and full pay, directed towards those who had made their living from the financial sector. This in all honesty was completely unhelpful – even though the whole crisis was down in some part to the banks, banking policy is dictated not by the guys at the bottom who lost their jobs, but by the people at the top who miraculously survived. Another possible reaction would be to look at this crisis and see what we can learn from it. If we can learn from our mistakes, we can stop them happening in the future, can’t we? Or is it that we will know them when we make them again?

The most obvious lesson from this crisis is the fact that banks have been lending excessively, and irresponsibly, to people whose hopes of actually maintaining the payments were always flimsy. It seems absurd now that the banks could play so free and easy with their money. Was a crisis like this not completely inevitable in the circumstances? The banks have promised that the lesson is learned in any case, and it is noticeable that they have been less keen to lend to anyone recently. Is that really a sign that they have learned the lesson, though, or a sign of over-correction? Who knows?

As people, it would be hoped that we have learned that credit is like a firework – to be treated with caution, but capable of facilitating wonderful things if handled correctly. It is tempting to use borrowing to fund our dreams and our pleasures, but there is always the danger that it could lead to a situation that no-one really enjoys. It shouldn’t need to be a matter of advice – spending money you can’t really afford will lead to bad things! – but if the message needs to be reinforced, just look at the newspapers every day. Do we really want to keep reading about companies going to the wall? Apart from anything else, that is becoming very tedious. Let’s start making good news.

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MEET YOUR AUTHOR A DAWN AT THE TORONTO REFERENCE LIBRARY

Hope to see you all.